Nifty derivative May contracts experienced the lowest rollover in 2011 at 59.7%. In 2011 the average rollover so far had been 66.2%. The May rollover was accompanied by a lower spread between the May and June futures which indicated that short positions were more aggressively rolled-over than that of longs.
The spread (difference between Nifty in the cash market and Nifty June futures) has been coming down extensively since the past one week and experts attribute it to be a result of bearish sentiment among traders. The spread between the May and June series or the discount with which June series closed over the Nifty stood at 21.7 on Thursday .
Savio Shetty, research analyst- Institutional Derivatives at Prabhudas Lilladher says, “Even after discounting for the dividend premium of around 24.5, the net spread turns out to be a premium of just over 3 points.
Such low premium along with a lower-than-average market-wide rollover indicates a higher rollover of shorts”.
While the lower rollovers in Nifty are in line with sluggish market sentiment, the open interest on the put side indicates that traders are looking at 5,300 as the near-term strong support.
June 5,300 puts gained 11.6 lakh shares, highest for any strike on the put side to obtain a total open interest of 49.4 lakh shares.
However, the marginal difference between the open interest of June 5,000 and 5,300 puts indicate that traders are considering 5,000 to be the next crucial support for the Nifty in case 5,300 gives away. Currently, June 5,000 puts have the highest open interest of about 51 lakh shares on the put side.
Sector-wise, real estate companies, namely, DLF and Indiabulls Realestate saw a high rollover of 84% with higher discounts indicating transfer of short positions.
The spread (difference between Nifty in the cash market and Nifty June futures) has been coming down extensively since the past one week and experts attribute it to be a result of bearish sentiment among traders. The spread between the May and June series or the discount with which June series closed over the Nifty stood at 21.7 on Thursday .
Savio Shetty, research analyst- Institutional Derivatives at Prabhudas Lilladher says, “Even after discounting for the dividend premium of around 24.5, the net spread turns out to be a premium of just over 3 points.
Such low premium along with a lower-than-average market-wide rollover indicates a higher rollover of shorts”.
While the lower rollovers in Nifty are in line with sluggish market sentiment, the open interest on the put side indicates that traders are looking at 5,300 as the near-term strong support.
June 5,300 puts gained 11.6 lakh shares, highest for any strike on the put side to obtain a total open interest of 49.4 lakh shares.
However, the marginal difference between the open interest of June 5,000 and 5,300 puts indicate that traders are considering 5,000 to be the next crucial support for the Nifty in case 5,300 gives away. Currently, June 5,000 puts have the highest open interest of about 51 lakh shares on the put side.
Sector-wise, real estate companies, namely, DLF and Indiabulls Realestate saw a high rollover of 84% with higher discounts indicating transfer of short positions.
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and Arindam chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).
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