In his plush cabin at an embassy in Delhi, a political
attaché who had just returned from his assignment in Afghanistan had said this to me months ago, quiet nonchalantly: “Afghanistan is not a federation, in fact not even a confederation. It is merely a potpourri of states whhere people at times appear to walk in a common direction.” I remember, we had a hearty laugh then at the cost of Afghans.
But as the country goes to the polls in less than a week, those casually spoken words are falling in place. Probably, for the first time in the history of this country, it seems that a substantial portion of the population is willing to override their narrow tribal allegiance. And that has rattled all, including America and its once blue-eyed Pashtun, President Hamid Karzai. When the Bush Administration originally anointed Karzai as president years ago, he was perceived in Afghanistan and elsewhere as an adroit statesman exceptionally skilled in forging alliances among nation’s ever warring splinter groups. Eight years hence, as Afghanistan has worsened, so has Karzai’s standing. The same qualities that once earned him eulogies are now drawing all round criticism. Karzai is being called a mercurial and irresolute boss. And given that he overtly opposes American presence on his soil, he is widely held responsible for all that ails Afghanistan: Rampant corruption, a thriving opium business and Taliban’s resurrection.
“Regardless of his countless failings, Karzai has turned into a strongman, a boss whose deal-making skills and appeasing nature have allowed him to either marginalise his adversaries or turn them into allies,” Haroun Mir, an expert on Afghan politics at Centre for Research and Policy Studies, Kabul, tells TSI.
“And that may well translate into triumph at the polls.” That is what most of the prepoll surveys predict. Yet the possibility for a run-off has been rising because two of the 41 candidates have emerged as genuine contenders — former foreign affairs minister Abdullah Abdullah and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani. Surprisingly, both of them are canvassing in areas outside their representative bases. They are criticising Karzai for his weak governance.
For example, last week in Paktika Province, Abdullah struck a rebellious tone in front of several hundred Pashtuns — voters not conventionally sympathetic to the former Northern Alliance associates. Ghani — a former World Bank analyst who was in 2006 tipped for the job of UN Secretary General — on the other hand, is travelling north to non-Pashtun regions. A public meeting at Kabul University last week drew nearly 1,000 odd students — once considered rock solid social base for Karzai. But it seems that Ghani may finally opt out of the race in favour of Karzai, and will be suitably made “Chief Executive” of the new administration.
“Abdullah Abdullah was an advisor to Ahmed Shah Masood and that means a lot in Afghanistan. The ghost of Masood can draw enough vote to force Karzai for a run-off,” says Wadir Safi, an expert at Kabul University, while talking to TSI.
But it is not that Karzai is unprepared. He has formed his own rainbow coalition that appears impregnable. In fact, analysts insist that at the most, Abdullah can force Karzai for a run-off. A victory might still be elusive for him.
Karzai has promised to re-appoint as army chief of staff ex-warlord, Uzbek leader Gen Rashid Dostum — who has been right-hand man of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ahmed Masood and Nazibullah at different times in history.
Karzai has also courted the Shia Hazara minority — a key swing vote — by promising to appoint more ministers from their community. Besides, they have been promised a separate province. Hazara leader Muhammad Mohaqeq and Tajik warlord Mohammad Fahim are now trusted allies. But for how long?
attaché who had just returned from his assignment in Afghanistan had said this to me months ago, quiet nonchalantly: “Afghanistan is not a federation, in fact not even a confederation. It is merely a potpourri of states whhere people at times appear to walk in a common direction.” I remember, we had a hearty laugh then at the cost of Afghans.But as the country goes to the polls in less than a week, those casually spoken words are falling in place. Probably, for the first time in the history of this country, it seems that a substantial portion of the population is willing to override their narrow tribal allegiance. And that has rattled all, including America and its once blue-eyed Pashtun, President Hamid Karzai. When the Bush Administration originally anointed Karzai as president years ago, he was perceived in Afghanistan and elsewhere as an adroit statesman exceptionally skilled in forging alliances among nation’s ever warring splinter groups. Eight years hence, as Afghanistan has worsened, so has Karzai’s standing. The same qualities that once earned him eulogies are now drawing all round criticism. Karzai is being called a mercurial and irresolute boss. And given that he overtly opposes American presence on his soil, he is widely held responsible for all that ails Afghanistan: Rampant corruption, a thriving opium business and Taliban’s resurrection.
“Regardless of his countless failings, Karzai has turned into a strongman, a boss whose deal-making skills and appeasing nature have allowed him to either marginalise his adversaries or turn them into allies,” Haroun Mir, an expert on Afghan politics at Centre for Research and Policy Studies, Kabul, tells TSI.
“And that may well translate into triumph at the polls.” That is what most of the prepoll surveys predict. Yet the possibility for a run-off has been rising because two of the 41 candidates have emerged as genuine contenders — former foreign affairs minister Abdullah Abdullah and former finance minister Ashraf Ghani. Surprisingly, both of them are canvassing in areas outside their representative bases. They are criticising Karzai for his weak governance.
For example, last week in Paktika Province, Abdullah struck a rebellious tone in front of several hundred Pashtuns — voters not conventionally sympathetic to the former Northern Alliance associates. Ghani — a former World Bank analyst who was in 2006 tipped for the job of UN Secretary General — on the other hand, is travelling north to non-Pashtun regions. A public meeting at Kabul University last week drew nearly 1,000 odd students — once considered rock solid social base for Karzai. But it seems that Ghani may finally opt out of the race in favour of Karzai, and will be suitably made “Chief Executive” of the new administration.
“Abdullah Abdullah was an advisor to Ahmed Shah Masood and that means a lot in Afghanistan. The ghost of Masood can draw enough vote to force Karzai for a run-off,” says Wadir Safi, an expert at Kabul University, while talking to TSI.
But it is not that Karzai is unprepared. He has formed his own rainbow coalition that appears impregnable. In fact, analysts insist that at the most, Abdullah can force Karzai for a run-off. A victory might still be elusive for him.
Karzai has promised to re-appoint as army chief of staff ex-warlord, Uzbek leader Gen Rashid Dostum — who has been right-hand man of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Ahmed Masood and Nazibullah at different times in history.
Karzai has also courted the Shia Hazara minority — a key swing vote — by promising to appoint more ministers from their community. Besides, they have been promised a separate province. Hazara leader Muhammad Mohaqeq and Tajik warlord Mohammad Fahim are now trusted allies. But for how long?
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Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative
Source : IIPM Editorial, 2008
An IIPM and Professor Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist) Initiative
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